No, it wasn’t as difficult as the journey to Texas that Woodrow Call took with the body of his friend Augustus McCrae in the famous novel and television series “Lonesome Dove.” For one thing, neither of us was dead. And an air-conditioned Chevy Suburban, even one loaded with plants, computers, and clothes, is a lot more comfortable than a horse. But Highway 285, which runs south like a lost arrow, is a very lonesome road. It is lonesome in Clines Corners and Vaughn long before it crosses from New Mexico into Texas and ends in Fort Stockton. It takes you through places with fading memories, a hungry present, and little or no future. When you cross from New Mexico into Texas you know you are in a different place. How? Signs that might have identified an “arroyo” now call the same thing a “draw.” Many have colorful name signs next to the road, like “Six Shooter Draw” along Highway 385 between Fort Stockton and Marathon. Yes, there are roads less traveled, but you’d have to work to find them. After a night at the wonderful Gage Hotel, for instance, we could have followed the border route provided by Highway 90. We could have gone through Sanderson and Del Rio, as I once did on a motorcycle trip. This particular stretch of blacktop was made famously noir in the movie version of “No Country for Old Men.” Highway 67 from Presidio to Marfa, with views some will remember from the movie “Giant,” is a good alternative. So is Highway 170 from Presidio to Terlingua, with vistas into Mexico across the Rio Grande seen in “The Three Burials of Melquiades Estrada.” This is the pure, deep Texas. This is Lone Star Texas, the Texas of stories, true and mythical. The Texas to which my wife and I are returning is another kind of Texas, a new Texas, but it still has the good grit. Our new home in Dripping Springs, about 25 miles outside of Austin, may be the “Gateway to Hill Country”— to the stunningly beautiful rolling countryside that extends from Austin down to Kerrville, Junction and beyond— but it’s also in the heart of what I’ve called “Dal-Antonio.” That’s the developing megopolis of Dallas, Austin and San Antonio. This area is to Texas as “Bos-Wash” is to the Northeast or “Chi-Pitts” is to the Midwest. It may have all kinds of music— country and western— but it lives and works urban. It also accounts for three of the six major metropolitan areas with the fastest growing personal income in the United States. Add Houston, which is first on the list, and Texas is the heartland of growth in America in a year of shock, misery and loss. Energy contributed, but it isn’t the whole story. In case you haven’t seen the Bureau of Economic Analysis list of Personal Income for Metropolitan Areas, here’s how major cities compare. While Houston, Austin, San Antonio, and Dallas experienced personal income growth of 6.3 percent, 5.4 percent, 5.4 percent, and 4.6 percent, respectively, in 2008 the average U.S. metropolitan area was growing personal income at only 3.3 percent. (Figures are not inflation-adjusted.) And while some areas were expected disasters— Las Vegas and Phoenix (1.3 percent), Miami (1.8 percent) and Los Angeles (2.2 percent) — others did passably. Boston clocked in at 3.7 percent, Seattle at 3.6 percent and San Diego at 3.8 percent. Chicago and New York came in at 3 percent (see table below). Compare the income change figures with the home price change figures and you find what you’d expect. Healthy income growth means stable prices. Less income growth means declining prices. While metropolitan Texas home values have been relatively stable, home values elsewhere have plummeted.
| Comparing Hits: Personal Income and Home Prices | ||
| This table compares changes in personal income in major metropolitan areas around the country with changes in median home sale prices. | ||
| Metropolitan Area | Personal Income, 2008 Change in Percent | Median Home Sales Price Change in Percent |
| Houston | 6.3 | +2.6 |
| Austin | 5.4 | -0.1 |
| Dallas | 4.6 | -0.2 |
| San Antonio | 5.4 | -3.3 |
| San Diego | 3.8 | -20.2 |
| Boston | 3.7 | -8.3 |
| Seattle | 3.6 | -13.7 |
| U.S. Average | 3.3 | -15.6 |
| Chicago | 3.0 | -20.7 |
| San Francisco | 2.7 | -31.0 |
| Los Angeles | 2.2 | -25.7 |
| Miami | 1.8 | -33.1 |
| Las Vegas | 1.3 | -39.7 |
| Phoenix | 1.3 | -36.1 |
| Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, 2008 data; National Association of Realtors, Q2 data | ||
Whether shrinking gains in personal income caused home prices to decline or declining home prices caused personal income to decline is a long chicken/egg discussion. But while Texas has foreclosures from liar loans and uncertainty due to excess home inventory, one thing is clear. In Texas, homeownership hasn’t devastated homeowner net worth as it has in much of the country. That makes Texas the state to watch.
On the web:
Borderland column series:
http://assetbuilder.com/blogs/tags/Borderland/default.aspx?GroupID=6
Wikipedia: Lonesome Dove (1989 Television mini-series)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lonesome_Dove
IMDB: No Country for Old Men (2007)
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0477348/
IMDB: Giant (1956)
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0049261/
IMDB: The Three Burials of Melquiades Estrada (2005)
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0419294/
The Gage Hotel
Income, Poverty and Health Insurance Coverage in the United States, 2008
http://www.census.gov/prod/2009pubs/p60-236.pdf
Bureau of Economic Analysis: Personal Income for Metropolitan Areas, 2008
http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/regional/mpi/2009/pdf/mpi0809.pdf
National Association of Realtors: Second Quarter 2009 Median Home Resale Prices
This information is distributed for education purposes, and it is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, recommendation, or endorsement of any particular security, product, or service.
Photo: Scott Burns
(c) Scott Burns, 2023