The Consumer Price Index used for the calculation of the annual Social Security benefit cost-of-living adjustment, the CPI-W, rose 8.66 percent over the prior August period according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Calculated against the third quarter CPI average for last year of 268.421, the Social Security COLA for 2023 would be 8.76 percent. This is calculated using both the July and August CPI-W figures. The final calculation will also include the index figure for September.
With two “in the money” months in it would take a dramatic index change in September to change the final calculation very much.
If the index remained unchanged in September, the annual Social Security adjustment for 2023 would be 8.72 percent (291.8237/268.421).
If the index figure for September is higher or lower, the final COLA figure will be higher or lower. Here’s an example. For the 2023 COLA to be 9 percent– which some observers think possible– the index would have to jump to 293.88 from its August 291.629 level. That’s possible, but not likely. With core inflation running at 6 percent, a more likely number will be an index of 293.087.
—Scott Burns
| Evidence-Based Guessing Next Year’s Social Security COLA | ||
| This table shows the month by month progression of experienced inflation from the measuring period in 2021 to the most recent CPI figure for August. You can continue the calculation by adding the CPI-W as it is released around the 10th of each month and dividing by the average index figure for last year, 268.421. The press release is available at: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm | ||
| Period | CPI-W Index | Inflation to Date, in % |
| Third Quarter, 2021 | 268.421 | 0.00 |
| October | 271.552 | 1.17% |
| November | 273.042 | 1.72 |
| December | 273.925 | 2.05 |
| January 2022 | 276.296 | 2.93 |
| February | 278.943 | 3.92 |
| March | 283.176 | 5.50 |
| April | 284.575 | 6.02 |
| May | 288.02 | 7.30 |
| June | 292.542 | 9.00 |
| July | 292.219 | 8.86 |
| August | 291.629 | 8.76% (July & August average) |
| September | ||
| Third Quarter 22’ average | ||
| Calculated SS Cola | Q32022/Q32021=? | |
| Sources: Social Security website and Bureau of Labor Statistics website | ||
This information is distributed for education purposes, and it is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, recommendation, or endorsement of any particular security, product, or service.
Photo: Pexels
(c) Scott Burns, 2022
4 thoughts on “Social Security increase for 2023 likely to be 8.9% ”
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Hi theere thos is kinnd of off off topic but I was wondering iff blkgs usse WYSIWYG
editors oor iif yoou habe too manualply copde wit HTML.
I’m startingg a blog ssoon bbut have no codding know-how soo I
wanhted to get guhidance from someone woth experience.
Anny helpp would be enormously appreciated!
See the note to Mary Ann. Very soon after HTML was introduced people were creating content management systems, programs that would allow you to create content without needing to learn how to be a coder. Back in 1995, for instance, I experimented with HTML but concluded that I couldn’t meet my writing deadlines (3 columns a week back then) if I had to code, too.
Vermeer, which I believe was the first content management system program was available by summer of 1995 but was quickly purchased by Microsoft and disappeared until it was reintroduced in early 1996 as Frontpage. I used Frontpage for my first website. It was so easy to use that I could write columns and manage the website. Now, with WordPress, it is still easier.
Wow, marvelous blog layout! How long have youu bee blogging for?
you mad bloggkng lokk easy. Thhe overaall look off your weeb site iis magnificent,
let alone the content!
Hi Maryann,
Thanks, but the praise goes to WordPress, the open source blog software, and the many people who develop easily used “themes” that add organization and great visual opportunities. You can add your own photos, use a free photo site like Pexels or pay for photos and illustrations. HTML (hyper-text-markup-language) was launched in 1993 and has been developed massively since then. It has transformed communication.