Call it inflation shock.
There we were, having dinner at Houston’s late on a Sunday afternoon, enjoying what my wife and I call a “mind healthy” meal of steak and dirty Skye martinis, toasting Dan Quayle and others who have made great contributions to Western Civilization.
As usual, Houston’s was crowded. Indeed, I have never seen a Houston’s that was not crowded at any time of the day or night in any city because it is a terrific chain of restaurants. Good food, well served, in a comfortable atmosphere. When Brinker International tried to get in the ring with a similar concept, Grady’s Grill, they were beaten to a pulp and gave up.
Others may try but Houston’s delivers.
Then the check arrived.
Each martini was $9.50. Not $6, $6.50, $7.00, or even $7.50— the price you expect to pay for Top Shelf ingredients— but $9.50, a price that gives you great pause even if you’ve had only one. If you’ve had two you’ll be complaining to your designated driver all the way home.
I thought about doing something radical, like picketing on Preston Road with a sign, “Houston’s Unfair To Martini Lovers,” but my wife’s expression made me reconsider. All I can say is that the Burns family affection for Houston’s has been greatly reduced.
Lest you think I’m not a devoted researcher, you should also know that I went back a month later with two friends, a doctor and biochemist, to see if my wife and I had experienced some kind of aberration. We hadn’t. My friends— serious professionals and scientists, not rabble rousing, pub-crawling, scum-of-the-earth journalists— were both shocked by what they experienced.
Absolut Citron martinis were $9.50 each, too.
Why am I telling you this?
Because the walking around evidence— the stuff we all see and sense and don’t know where to put—says that inflation is back. Until a week ago, this was highly unofficial. Economists were expecting reasonable March figures: 0.5 percent for everything or 0.3 percent if you exclude all the money we spend on silly things like food and gasoline. Instead, the actual report came in at 0.7 percent for the whole index and 0.4 percent for the index excluding food and energy. If inflation averages 0.4 percent a month for the year, we’ll lose about 5 percent for the year.
I call that serious inflation.
Is it here? The CPI may or may not tell us.
But the walking around evidence says it is.
Consider another example. Last week I went to the supermarket and came out with a receipt for $135. The bill, in itself, doesn’t tell us much, but I noticed something strange when I got home.
Although no one has been impressed by the remarkable increase in my strength and dexterity, I was able to haul all $135 of groceries into the house in one trip.
One trip. $135.
I’ve never done that before. Not ever. Usually, $135 takes two trips. Sometimes three.
That’s not very precise. It’s not an index. But it’s inflation.
Still skeptical?
OK, how about something absolutely lacking in subtlety, like paying $30 to fill your gas tank instead of $20? These experiences, like old wounds, tell me the weather has changed.
Am I right?
Let me know. Share. We’ve got to help each other. Tell me your Inflation Shockers and I’ll pass the information on to other readers. Tell me about the increase in your real estate tax bill, your rising home insurance premium, the increase in your employer provided medical insurance, the change in price for your favorite meal, or… whatever… but tell me your story.
And if you think I’m flat out wrong and you’ve got some price declines you want to rave about, tell me those, too. (Sorry, computer bargain stories won’t cut it. Thou shalt not live by computers alone.)
This information is distributed for education purposes, and it is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, recommendation, or endorsement of any particular security, product, or service.
Photo: Ata Ebem
(c) Scott Burns, 2022