“This is a book about what happens to people when they are overwhelmed by change. It is about the ways in which we adapt – or fail to adapt – to the future.”
This isn’t the opening sentence of a futurist book currently available at your local bookstore. It’s the opening of a book published in 1970. So long ago. A time with prices that now seem downright impossible.
— The median family income was $9,870.
— The employment tax stopped coming out of a paycheck at $7,800, not $168,500.
— The median U.S. home price, at $23,400, was less than a used car today.
— A home mortgage could be had at 7 percent. (The rate seemed high at the time but turned out to be low for more than a decade.)
— A new car could be yours for $3,450.
Not to mention technology change
It was so far in our past that computing was done on huge mainframe computers. Intel hadn’t introduced the “computer on a chip.” And while the ARPANET, the first version of the Internet, was launched in 1969, the first email wasn’t sent until 1971. The Apple II computer wouldn’t be launched until 1977. GPS, the tool that we now use to know where we are and where we are going, wouldn’t exist until 1978.
The book was Alvin Toffler’s “Future Shock,” predicting accelerating change. The book was, and remains, a good guide to what happens as we leave traditional societies – the ones that don’t change from one generation to the next – and cope with living in a world of constant, rapid change where the parents of one generation can no longer expect to know (or understand) what the next generation will do.
Other books are interesting – and I’ve read futurist books as a hobby since I was in my teens – but this book, a literal antique, nailed the future as we staggered into it.
Looking at futurist books, a notion emerges
The darkest books have been mostly wrong. We aren’t starving. We haven’t died in a nuclear winter. Japan didn’t overwhelm America. Deadly diseases abound, but all have been contained. We haven’t run out of oil. Or suffered population collapse. Basically, dystopian fears sell well but seldom come to fruition.
Yes, this could be a case akin to the guy who jumped off a 40-story building and was heard to observe, “So far, so good” as he passed the 10th floor.
The positive books have been mostly right. Lots of hyperventilating, to be sure. And the “think positive” crew has always thought the future was closer than it turned out to be. Yes, we have videophones today. But flying cars? Trips to Mars (Elon notwithstanding)? Eradication of common health problems? Still coming… soon.
But for all our angst and fear, for all our complaints, more good stuff has happened than bad.
Is there a principle here?
Personally, I’ve always loved Buckminster Fuller and his notion of “ephemeralization” – the idea that we will move forward by finding ways to do more with less.
But when it comes to research substance, the source to visit was always economist Julien Simon. He’s the guy who revealed, in hard factual detail, how much more we were getting for less human effort and time. He’s the guy who showed that additional human beings, including immigrants, made economies grow. Humans are the source of all value added.
Sadly, Simon died in 1998, shortly before his 66th birthday.
Who carries on?
As you know, the sky is still falling. Just ask your TV set.
Don’t look for help there.
My first candidate is Hans Rosling. For starters, Rosling gathered global data and dramatically showed that we humans were not doomed. Instead, we were doing better by just about any metric over periods of time that are historically short.
His book, “Factfulness: Ten Reasons We’re Wrong About the World – And Why Things Are Better Than You Think” is foundational reading. If you are impatient or don’t read much, just go to YouTube and catch one of his animated data presentations like this BBC presentation. Sadly, Rosling died in 2017.
Matt Ridley, author of “The Rational Optimist,” is his heir apparent. You can read his book. Or you can join (for free) his Rational Optimist Society. Just go to its website. (Start by going to the “Good News Gallery” and then wander over to “The latest.” )
It’s all about real data and real action. It’s not about lamentation.
Have a good time.
Related columns:
Scott Burns, “This Old Mobile Home: Lessons from a Book Purge,” 5/7/2019: https://scottburns.com/this-old-mobile-home-lessons-from-a-book-purge/
Scott Burns, “The Rebellion Against Complexity,” 5/09/2020: https://scottburns.com/the-rebellion-against-complexity/
Sources and References:
Hans Rosling, “Factfulness: Ten Reasons We’re Wrong About the World – and Why Things Are Better Than You Think” https://www.amazon.com/Factfulness-Reasons-World-Things-Better/dp/1250107814/ref=sr_1_1?crid=7E9A21125AYK&keywords=hans+rosling%2C+factfulness+2018&qid=1583960822&sprefix=Hans+Rosling%2Caps%2C183&sr=8-1
Matt Ridley, “The Rational Economist” https://www.amazon.com/Rational-Optimist-Prosperity-Evolves-P-s/dp/0061452068/ref=sr_1_1?crid=14376PUTJ0N08&keywords=matt+ridley+rational+optimist&qid=1583960687&sprefix=Matt+Ridley%2Caps%2C184&sr=8-1
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(c) Scott Burns, 2026