COVID-19 has us all scared. It has also brought out all the doomsday preppers and others who are certain that the delicate fabric of human civilization is about to be torn to shreds as we run short of — well, it’s a long list.
Maybe it will get that bad. Maybe not. What we know for certain is that it’s a real event and that we’ve seen a variety of viruses out in the world in recent years, some more deadly than others.
And that’s what gets my attention. Sick is one thing. So is very sick. But dead is something else.
Measuring the death rate
The recent study published in the Journal of the American Medical Association and cited in many publications indicates that COVID-19 is pretty deadly, with an overall death rate of 2.3 percent. Then it was upped to 3.4 percent. That’s less deadly than SARS or MERS but far, far worse than the flu we get shots for every year.
But the virus is most deadly for a particular group – the elderly. The study found that the death rate from COVID-19 was 8 percent in the 70-79 group and a whopping 14.8 percent among those at least 80 years old.
Most people can breathe a big sigh of relief at such news. While older people are the fastest growing of all age groups, it remains that most of the population in the United States is under age 70.
Taking it personally
But if you’re my age– 79 –you might take this personally. Something is definitely out to get us. And now that you know I have a dog in this hunt, allow me to make a rude observation.
COVID-19, like most things, may have a lugubrious silver lining.
What do I mean by that?
The lugubrious silver lining
Simple. One of the biggest problems we have is the cost of supporting the elderly. It’s one of the reasons that Social Security has a growing unfunded liability. It’s one (but just one) of the reasons that public and private pension plans are underfunded.
While the elderly population may be a burden in the United States, the situation is starting to look a bit apocalyptic in the nations that either forgot to breed or weren’t allowed to.
Let’s take a quick tour.
In Italy, for instance, it’s clear that television has been an amazing source of birth control. Recent figures indicate that 22 percent of the population is at least 65 years old. More people die each year than are born. And the birth rate is far less than the rate demographers call the “replacement” rate, the rate sufficient to maintain a stable population. According to worldpopulationreview.com, Italy loses167 people each day, one every 9 minutes.
The figures are actually worse in places like Japan, Taiwan and South Korea; about the same in Germany, Singapore, Macau and Hong Kong; and somewhat better but still well below replacement rate in Canada, Finland, Switzerland, Denmark, France and the Netherlands.
China’s fertility rate is similar to ours, 1.635 vs. our 1.886, but both countries are short of replacing current population. China compounded its problem with the one-child policy, so they already have a shortage of people to take care of (and support) their elderly.
In all these places, the problem of supporting and caring for the elderly is one of the greatest problems. In most discussions, the answer is more growth, more productivity and more taxes. Find ways to do that and the greatest benefit of human success, a much longer life, is a blessing.
A fix only Dr. Strangelove would like
The other way is to have something like COVID-19 come along and reduce life expectancy for the elderly. It’s perverse, for sure, but a virus may be a kind of Dr. Strangelove “solution” for a problem that years of conferences, study and pondering couldn’t dent.
Related columns:
Scott Burns, “Life is (still) worth living after 75,” 11/2/2018 https://scottburns.com/life-is-still-worth-living-after-75/
Scott Burns, “Why it’s a good thing to live beyond age 75,” 11/8/2015 https://scottburns.com/why-its-a-good-thing-to-live-beyond-age-75/
Sources and References:
Stephanie Soucheray, “Study of 72,000 COVID-19 patients finds 2.3% death rate,” 2/24/2020 http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/02/study-72000-covid-19-patients-finds-23-death-rate
Rosie Perper, “WHO says the coronavirus global death rate is 3.4%, higher than earlier figures,” 3/5/2020 https://www.sciencealert.com/covid-19-s-death-rate-is-higher-than-thought-but-it-should-drop
Figures on population and birthrates http://worldpopulationreview.com/countries/italy-population/
This information is distributed for education purposes, and it is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, recommendation, or endorsement of any particular security, product, or service.
Photo: Johannes Plenio on Pexels.com
(c) Scott Burns, 2020
3 thoughts on “A Really Dark Silver Lining”
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I’m 69 so I’m pretty much in that age group myself. You make some great points. It’s becoming a problem of what to do or care for the aging elderly. My aunt is 98 years old and has run out of money. She is somewhat affected with dementia and although she will now qualify for Medicaid, the facility that my sister wants to move her to would cost an extra $1,000.00 per month. That’s not sustainable! It could be that if a virus does not reduce the elderly population, we could be looking at “Logan’s Run Part 2”.
This is a real ‘boots-on-the-ground’ current evidence situation. The best way to enter a nursing home is as a paying patient. In facilities that keep a number of Medicaid beds, it is sometimes possible to transition from paying patient to Medicare client. That isn’t possible, as I understand it, in facilities that are entirely private funded.
You and your sister might want to consult with an eldercare attorney to explore options.
I’m not an elder care attorney. But a consult with one might help you solve this.