The Butterfly Effect and Dark Silver Linings

“If immigration is curtailed and if new immigrants need to be well-off or well-educated to be accepted, where will our future caregivers come from?”

This isn’t an abstract question. For my friend it isn’t abstract at all. At 94, he was just looking at life around him on the Florida Gulf Coast. It’s a place where white hair abounds and youth is rare. It’s a place where the restaurants, even in the February high season, close by nine.

In particular, he was wondering about care for his wife.

He still lives independently. But she’s been bed-ridden in full-time nursing care for two years.

I was in Florida, cruising the Intracoastal Waterway once more aboard my friend Walt’s boat, the “Sea Gypsy.” It was an easy week, starting in Fort Myers with visits to South Seas Island Resort on Captiva, Boca Grande and Sanibel before returning to Fort Myers.

Docked once more, I arranged a visit with another friend. Having retired in his early 60s, he’s been retired longer than anyone I know – more than 30 years. A former Fortune 500 executive, he easily takes charge of situations and remains curious and abundantly well informed. Until very recently, he played tennis several times a week.

His wife has always been his active counterpart, whether it was in corporate life or in the boating they both loved. I associate her with smiles, pearls and bright colors.

By the standards of average Americans they’ve got it made. It’s not that big a problem if none of your adult children want your antiques or sterling when you die.

But getting really old is still a problem. So is dying very slowly.

At his home, he puts together a package for Happy Hour. He does this every day. We drive to the nursing home in his new car. We go to his wife’s private room and he takes out the cheese, crackers, grapes and wine that he’s brought. He gives her a small glass of wine and a cracker with cheese.

The wine goes down easily. But it’s more difficult for her to eat the cracker. It crumbles and falls. She gets frustrated.

Later, her dinner arrives. All soft foods. But she has difficulty with the fettuccine. Some falls and remains on her blouse. She is frustrated.

As nursing care facilities go, this place is as good as it gets. It’s bright, clean, well equipped, spacious and attractive. The clients, I estimate, all have wealth positions in the top few percent of the population. They aren’t going to run out of money. The facility is well-staffed — or tries to be.

But he is worried about quality of care.

One way to assure quality care, he says, is to visit regularly. That’s one, just one, of the reasons for the daily Happy Hour. He also has a pact with two other people who live independently: They will watch out for each other. When their turn comes for nursing care – and they hope it won’t – they’ll make sure to visit regularly.

In nursing care, everyone needs an advocate.

Leaving, thinking about his comment on immigration, a slightly hysterical voice in my head says, “Be careful what you wish for. You may get it.”

Somewhere in public policy land a butterfly flapped its wings as immigration was restricted. Restriction was supposed to protect us from a long list of bad things.

But it may not work out that way for nursing care.

It might just dry up the supply of people willing to work odd hours at low pay, caring for all the aged people who can no longer take care of themselves.

Meanwhile, in China, another butterfly has flapped its wings and taken flight. It’s the corona virus, now called COVID19. As it spreads across the world, it may reduce the need for elder care.

How?

An early study by the Chinese Center for Disease Control shows that while people of all ages can contract the virus, it is most deadly for the elderly. The fatality rate is well under 2 percent in people under 59 years of age. But it rises rapidly with age. For those at least 80 years old the death rate is nearly 15 percent.

As Gilda Radner said long ago, “It’s always something.”

We don’t know what the something is, but it’s usually a butterfly effect.


Related columns:

Scott Burns, “10,000 Retirees a Day Isn’t Enough,” 3/19/2019   https://scottburns.com/10000-retirees-a-day-isnt-enough/

Sources and References:

“Coronavirus: Largest study suggests elderly and sick are most at risk,” BBC News, 2/18/2020   https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-51540981


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Photo:  Suparerg Suksai from Pexels

(c) Scott Burns, 2020