The Next Top 1 Percent 

Allow me to introduce the next group of people who will be top 1 percenters. They may not be rich in income. Or wealth. But they will definitely be rich in years.

The group?

It will be the men and women (mostly women) who are at least 90 years old. Currently accounting for about 0.8 percent of our total population, the nonagenarians and centenarians will cross into the top 1 percent of our population sometime between 2031 and 2032, according to demographic projections.  Even today, their numbers clock in at an impressive 2.7 million.

The new demographic leadership

That’s a lot of humans.

It’s the equivalent of the entire city of Chicago, our third largest city. It’s more than Houston (almost 2.4 million). It’s more than Dallas (1.3 million) and Austin (1 million) combined. It’s also more than Dallas and Fort Worth combined (2.3 million). But if you added Corpus Christi (321,000), you’d be nearly, but not quite, equal.

You should also know that these figures aren’t pie-in-the-sky estimates. All of these people already exist. They were born long ago. Only two things will affect their numbers in the future. The big factor is whether their lives are longer, or shorter, than the demographers estimate.

Becoming the new 1 percent is just the beginning. The 90-and-overs will continue to grow as a portion of our total population, reaching 2.1 percent by 2045, 2.4 percent by 2050, 2.9 percent by 2060 and 5.3 percent by 2100. (You can see this change for yourself by visiting www.populationpyramid.net )

It wasn’t always like this

Things were dramatically different back in 1950. The 90-somethings didn’t even register on the population pyramid, accounting for less than 0.1 percent of the population.

So, this is a big deal. It will have an impact on all of us. Ironically, the younger you are, the more it is likely to make a big difference in your life.

Here’s what I mean by that, up close and personal. I’m 82, so the impact of millions of 90 and overs probably won’t have much impact on my life. But it will have a big impact on the lives of my adult children, all of whom are now eligible for AARP membership. Ditto our grandchildren, who are now starting to marry and have families of their own.

It will affect the young more than the old

Why will the growth of the truly old affect young people the most? Because the younger you are, the more you’ll be carrying the bill.

In spite of this, we have yet to develop the language to make this group – the super old — visible. What do I mean by that?

Simple. We talk about our population in groups. It wasn’t many decades ago that age 65 was the end of the road for considering age. Everyone 65 or older was jumbled into the same age pot.

In the last few decades, financial planners have divided the over 65s into three groups:

            — The young-old, who are 65 to 74 (also known as “the go-go years”)

            — The old, who are 75 to 84 (also called “the slow-go years”)

            — The old-old, who are at least 85 (also titled “the no-go years”)

The more elaborate nomenclature is a good sign, but when you start looking for data on each sub-group, it’s remarkably thin, fading rapidly after age 70 or 75. By age 90, specific data, whether medical or economic, is pretty sketchy.

The old-old are becoming visible

One consequence is a remarkable blindness. Many in our society assume you don’t really exist after age 80. Or that life is just over.

Worse, that blindness forecloses the possibility of celebrating longer lives, something we humans have hoped for practically forever. Instead, we’ve converted achieving longevity into a grim national problem. We particularly focus on it as a financial problem, as if money were more important than life.

Money isn’t more important than life. Yet when the political conversation turns to cutting Social Security benefits or reducing Medicare spending, that’s exactly the position being taken.

The problem here is that even wonderful events – such as the massive increase in how long most of us can expect to live – have a cost.  The mature question isn’t: When and how to reduce Social Security and Medicare spending?

It’s:   How do we pay for the success we’ve already achieved and that literally everyone wants to continue?

One possible answer, never considered, is to change our attitude about how much is enough. I’ll be exploring this in future columns.

Coming Soon: Living on Social Security in Texas

Related columns:

Scott Burns, “The Amazing Value of Social Security Benefits,” 5/23/2020  https://scottburns.com/the-amazing-value-of-social-security-benefits/

Scott Burns, “The Thinness of Wealth,” 5/24/2015  https://scottburns.com/the-thinness-of-wealth/

Sources and References:

Living Past 90 in America https://www.thoughtco.com/living-past-90-in-america-3321510

What are the odds of living over 90? https://www.thehealthyjournal.com/faq/what-are-the-odds-of-living-over-90

Age distribution of population, 1950-2060 https://www.urban.org/sites/default/files/2015/10/09/t2_age_distribution.pdf

Population Pyramid by year  https://www.populationpyramid.net/united-states-of-america/2100/

The 200 Largest Cities in the United States by Population 2023: https://worldpopulationreview.com/us-cities

This information is distributed for education purposes, and it is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, recommendation, or endorsement of any particular security, product, or service.

Photo:

(c) Scott Burns, 2023