Always look forward. There are two good reasons for this:
“Never look backwards or you’ll fall down the stairs.” – Rudyard Kipling
“Don’t look back. You’ll miss what’s in front of you.” – Unknown
Me, I’m looking forward to 2020 and all the things that may happen if humanity manages to squeak through yet another year of upheaval, disaster and other excuses to drink heavily or up the meds. Here are my Fearless Forecasts for 2020 – and links to some previous years.
Brand loyalty will have a nervous breakdown
Virtually every credit card, airline, store and manufacturer now offers some form of loyalty program. The goal is to encourage repeat shoppers. But consumers will suffer burnout. Let’s call it Loyalty Program Overload, or LPO. According to Clarus Commerce, a firm that builds loyalty programs, we collectively hold 3.8 billion memberships in customer loyalty programs. We have an average of about 14 loyalty memberships. But we’re active in only half of them.
Why? Maybe it’s due to terminal indecision. Whatever the cause, get ready for the New Age of Cash Back.
Cocooning will soar.
The number of Americans who haven’t left home in a week will hit a new record. Many causes will be cited. A rising number of retirees for starters. A soaring fear of public places will be high on the list. And don’t forget the relentless Amazon deliveries and the outsourcing of movie theaters by Netflix, Prime, Disney, Apple and others — an ever-increasing number of citizens are finding ways to stay at home.
When asked why they don’t leave, the most common response will echo Melville’s Bartleby the Scrivener.
“I’d prefer not to.”
Columnist George Will best described the phenomenon in 1987. That’s when he wrote “the harassments of daily life – looming nuclear incineration, rude waiters – have driven people to ‘cocooning.’”
Hamburger consumption will reach to new highs.
No longer constrained by grazing lands and the looming shortage of Marlboro smokers who can ride horses, hamburger consumption will soar. Millions of Americans will switch to Impossible ™ Burgers and other vegetable-based competitors. Chick-fil-A will abandon its famous ad campaign of steers pushing “Eat mor chikin” messages.
Why? Well, it’s not about the beef anymore.
The stock market will go up, or down.
Production of new stock market prognostications will continue to reach new records. Some will say the market will be up, and then down. Others will say it will be down, and then up. Either way, we should not be tempted to do anything.
California will be renamed.
Once known as the “Golden State,” the California Legislature will consider giving the state a more dramatic name. In the end, contenders like the “Ember State,” the “Un-Ready Kilowatt State,” the “We’re Not Really Homeless We Just Live Outdoors State” and the “My Next Move Will Be to Texas State” will be rejected. After brief consideration of the “Locust State” (in memory of novelist Nathaniel West), it will become the “Apocalypse State.”
To celebrate the renaming, California hotels and motels will provide free showings of classic movies like “The Blob,” “The Invasion of the Body Snatchers,” and dozens of movies that feature the destruction of prime California places. Think San Francisco or Los Angeles.
Occupancy will soar.
***
To remind us that predictions are dangerous, particularly about the future, here is a monumentally wrong forecast that I made for 2008:
A Limitation on Free Speech Will Be Accepted By a Grateful Nation.
This will happen as the Federal Communications Commission bows to public demand that the use of certain names on radio or television is a gross waste of a public resource. The first person to be banned is Britney Spears, followed by Donald Trump.
Back to the Future with more Fearless Forecasts:
Scott Burns, “Fearless forecasts: the electric cars in our future,” 12/29/2018 https://scottburns.com/fearless-forecasts-the-electric-cars-in-our-future/
Scott Burns, “Fearless Forecasts 2016,” 12/25/2015 https://scottburns.com/fearless-forecasts-2016/
Scott Burns, “Fearless Forecasts 2015,” 12/26/2014 https://scottburns.com/fearless-forecasts-2015/
Scott Burns, “Fearless Forecasts 2014,” 12/27/2013 https://scottburns.com/fearless-forecasts-2014/
Scott Burns, “Fearless Forecasts for 2013,” 12/30/2012 https://scottburns.com/fearless-forecasts-for-2013/
Scott Burns, “Fearless Forecasts for 2012,” 12/31/2011 https://scottburns.com/fearless-forecasts-for-2012/
Scott Burns, “Fearless Predictions for 2000… and Beyond,” 12/28/1999 https://scottburns.com/fearless-predictions-for-2000-and-beyond/
This information is distributed for education purposes, and it is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, recommendation, or endorsement of any particular security, product, or service.
Photo: Scott Burns, Out with the old at Found Oaks, our place in Texas Hill Country
(c) Scott Burns, 2019