We common folk get lot of data thrown at us.
It’s fired at us with a media firehose. It hits us with the force of a water cannon.
The consumer price index (the one that has a U at the end) was up 3.8 percent for the last 12 months.
Now we know.
But…
What can we do about it? A lot, provided we’re a bit nerdy. And act.
In this column I’m going to show you three things:
— A list of expensive purchases to avoid or, at least, minimize.
— A list of cheaper things. Things we might consider bargains.
Avoid things on the first list. Substitute things on the second list when possible. Result? A lower personal CPI.
Then I’ll show you the third thing: How to anticipate the increase in Social Security benefits next year.
All of it from government press releases and data.
A Deeper Dive
If we go beyond that headline 3.8 percent CPI number, it turns out that we get actionable information in the deluge of figures from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
How can that be? Simple.
The headline number – that 3.8 percent – is built from more than 300 categories. Comb that list and you’ll know where the bargains are. You’ll also know where the inflation is.
We’ll also see another index number (the one that has a U at the end). It is used to calculate the benefit increase for people on Social Security.
Rank order the CPI list with the biggest price increases at the top and you see the obvious – fuel oil up 54.3%, gasoline (all types) up 28.4%, instant coffee (22.8%), coffee (18.5%), beef and veal (14.8%).
Who knew tomatoes would be up 39.7%? Or fresh vegetables, 11.5%?
Or jewelry, up 16.1%. Or dishes and flatware, up 15.4%. Watches, 8.8%. Cigarettes, 8.2%.
Purchase, subscription and rental of streaming videos, up 7.8%.
Clearly, there are purchases that can be deferred, reduced or eliminated. It’s up to us.
Finding Alternatives
And we can find substitutes from a list of things that have gone down in price.
Eggs, for instance, are down 39.2%. Time for omelets! Not to mention butter and margarine, down 5.4%; cheese, down 3.1%; potatoes, down 3%; and fresh whole chickens, down 1.8%.
Did I mention wine at home, down 0.8%?
So are smartphones (down 12.4%), men’s suits and outerwear (down 7.1%).
You can find all this information in Table 2 of the May 12 News Release, here.
Tracking the Social Security COL Increase — for 2027
By the time the Social Security Administration releases its determination of the annual increase for 2027 in October, we have half of the information needed for 2028.
How can that be?
Easy. The annual increase is determined by dividing the average of the index used, CPI-W, for the third quarter (July, August, September) in the preceding year into the average CPI-W of the year being completed. The Social Security Administration gives us a long history of the quarterly figures here.
In Q3 of 2025, the CPI-W index was 317.265.
The CPI-W for April was 326.541. If no prices changed over the next five months, the Social Security COL adjustment would calculate to 2.9 percent (326.541/317.265). Since the index is more likely to increase than decrease, retirees are likely to see an increase of more than 3 percent for 2027.
To do the calculation, you can take the figure for a single month off the BLS press release. But you can also take all the figures for recent months from a monthly table of values on the Social Security Administration website, here. If the average for July, August and September this year is only 329.956, the inflation adjustment will be 4 percent.
Buckle up!
Related columns:
Scott Burns, “What History Tells Us About Inflation,” 1/31/2026: https://scottburns.com/what-history-tells-us-about-inflation/
Scott Burns, “Making Good Use of the Consumer Price Index,” 12/3/2022: https://scottburns.com/making-good-use-of-the-consumer-price-index/
Scott Burns, “Social Security Increase for 2023 Likely To Be 8.9%,” 9/14/2022: https://scottburns.com/social-security-increase-for-2023-likely-to-be-8-9/
Sources and References:
Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index News Release, April 2026: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_05122026.htm
Bureau of Labor Statistics, Table 2 of April News release: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.t02.htm
Social Security website, Average CPI-W by Quarter And Year: https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/avgcpi.html
Social Security website, CPI For Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers:
https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/cpiw.html
This information is distributed for education purposes, and it is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, recommendation, or endorsement of any particular security, product, or service.
Photo: Scott Burns, 11/2025: A Problematic Relationship, Feral Cat and Baby Skunk
(c) Scott Burns, 2026